Najlepsze podcasty z kategorii: Nate Silver (2024)

1
Luigi Mangione, the Rise of Bluesky, and High-Stakes Chokes 41:17

8d ago41:17

41:17

Nate and Maria talk about what Luigi Mangione can show us about the danger of black and white thinking, and how platforms like Bluesky and X create bubbles that make matters worse. Then, with the reigning world chess champion dethroned after a surprising choke, they discuss how they deal with high-stakes situations. Risky Business will be off next …

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The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024 40:19

15d ago40:19

40:19

What were the best, worst, and most interesting decisions of 2024, and what can we learn from them? Nate and Maria award the year’s most notable decisions in our first annual Riskies awards show. Also: degen of the year, nit of the year, and the cognitive bias that best explains 2024. Then, they give a quick poker update and answer a listener’s que…

1
Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving Strategies 44:12

22d ago44:12

44:12

Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president’s present, they offer some thoughts on game-theory optimal gift giving for the holiday season. By the way, Nate and Maria will be hosting a poker meet up at the Bellagio next week! 12pm…

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Get Happier, Help Others: Some Good Ideas About Giving 51:09

25d ago51:09

51:09

It's the season of giving: colorful paper and shiny bows, sure, and charitable giving, too. In this special episode, Jacob Goldstein, the host of What's Your Problem, gets smart about donating. Did you know that spending money on others makes you happier than spending money on yourself? Or that altruistic nerds have discovered four of the most impa…

1
Maria and Nate’s Guide to GTO Travel 42:50

29d ago42:50

42:50

Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also: The biggest travel mistakes they ever made. Then, Maria breaks down a scandal in academic psychology research – and she and Nate discuss the underlying incentives that h…

1
How Senators and NFL Players Make High Risk Decisions 38:50

1M ago38:50

38:50

Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump’s controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the NFL has approved to lower the risk of concussion – and explain why most players are deciding not to wear them. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their …

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Will Trump Bring the River to Washington? 37:50

1M ago37:50

37:50

Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what’s next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a few key hands from the penultimate table of the North American Poker Tour Main Event. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konn…

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How Trump Won 40:16

2M ago40:16

40:16

Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for President Biden. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnyst…

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What to Look for on Election Day 31:21

2M ago31:21

31:21

On the day before the election, Nate gives a final model update, explains the latest polls, and talks about what he’ll be looking for on election day. Then, Maria and Nate trade their predictions and fears for how election day will play out. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin …

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The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns 42:56

2M ago42:56

42:56

What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race. And of course, we spend some time looking at the model. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate …

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Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting 45:55

2M ago45:55

45:55

Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in. Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle …

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How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers 48:29

2M ago48:29

48:29

This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for pr…

1
How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet 43:14

2M ago43:14

43:14

Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment. Further Reading: The Big Announcement More on Th…

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The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election 43:30

3M ago43:30

43:30

Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up the world of online poker. Plus, Nate and Maria lament the spread of AI “slop” online, and re-evaluate their p(doom) in light of recent developments at…

1
How to Win Bets and Influence Elections 48:59

3M ago48:59

48:59

Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election u…

1
Conning with the Stars: Anna Delvey, Voting Rationally, and the Maine Nebraska model 44:33

3M ago44:33

44:33

Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin’s (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate explains why Nebraska has his attention on the election map. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate S…

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Should You Be Able to Bet On the Election? 44:53

3M ago44:53

44:53

Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets, sued the US government in an effort to legalize betting on elections. Nate and Maria discuss the pros and cons of election prediction markets. Plus, Nate gives an election update and Maria learns what to do when there’s no plus-EV move. Further Reading: Ready Your Bets: Election gambling is going ma…

1
Does Nate Trust His Model? Debates, Prediction Markets and Poker 38:32

4M ago38:32

38:32

Nate and Maria discuss the Harris-Trump debate. Then, Nate gives an update on his election model, and Maria shares the outcome of her irrational move at a poker tournament in Barcelona. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy…

1
Calculating Risks in a Creative Life, with Brian Koppelman 48:14

4M ago48:14

48:14

Maria sits down with the great Brian Koppelman (Rounders, Billions, The Bear) to learn about how he navigates risk in Hollywood and beyond. They discuss his methods of determining when a risk is worth taking, how to offset risk with hard work, and the time he bet big on Billions. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Lea…

1
Amazing Frauds, Faking Your Own Death, and the Latest on the Election 54:39

4M ago54:39

54:39

Nate and Maria briefly discuss the latest election news. Then Tim Harford, author and host of Cautionary Tales, joins to discuss two of history’s most compelling con artists: Sam Israel III and John Law. Risk-related lessons are learned. Further Reading: A Con Man Who Lives Between Truth and Fiction from the New York Times The Murderer, The Boy Kin…

1
Kamala Edition: Taxes, Tariffs, and the DNC 40:23

4M ago40:23

40:23

This week Nate and Maria discuss the state of Kamala Harris’ presidential bid, including taking a look at her first policy proposals on price gouging and taxes on tips. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

1
Lessons from The River (Maria Interviews Nate About His Book) 43:08

4M ago43:08

43:08

Nate’s book “On the Edge” is out this week! (Get your copy here.) Maria interviews Nate about the origins of the book, what extreme risk takers get right and wrong, and the year Nate bet a million dollars on sports. Check out the Risky Business YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@RiskyBusinessShow For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe …

1
Taking Risks in Business, Poker, and Life (with Bill Perkins) 40:38

5M ago40:38

40:38

Maria sits down with Bill Perkins, the legendary energy trader, to talk about his approach to risk in business, poker, and life. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

1
Kamala Mode, Misinformation, and Winning the WSOP 45:30

5M ago45:30

45:30

Nate’s election model is back on, and it’s in Kamala Mode. Nate and Maria discuss what the model shows us about Kamala Harris’ chances, and the strange election misinformation that has been going around. Then, they are joined by World Series of Poker Main Event winner Jonathan Tamayo to discuss his win – and the controversy that surrounds it. For m…

1
Betting on Kamala Harris (with special guest Matt Glassman) 36:34

5M ago36:34

36:34

Biden’s out of the race! Matt Glassman joins Nate to talk about what the consolidation behind Kamala Harris reveals about party politics and who she might pick for a running mate. Further Reading: Why Biden Finally Quit from Politico Can Harris Beat Trump? from New York Magazine What a Kamala Harris Presidency Might Look Like from Semafor For more …

1
Conspiracy Theories, J.D. Vance, and Jury Duty 44:58

5M ago44:58

44:58

Nate and Maria discuss the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the psychology of conspiracy theorists. They talk about what Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance means for the election. And they parse the latest in the Democrats’ intra-party fight over Biden. Also on the show: Nate’s day at jury duty is a case study in bad bluffs. For more from Nat…

1
How to Convince Biden to Quit 46:15

6M ago46:15

46:15

Nate and Maria really, really, really want Joe Biden to drop out of the race. Maria gives a psychological consult on the best way to convince Biden to quit. Nate estimates Biden’s chances of defeating Donal Trump if he stays in – and Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the election if she replaces Biden. Also: An update from the Main Event of the Wo…

1
How to Gamble Like a Chess Player, with Jennifer Shahade 40:38

6M ago40:38

40:38

Maria talks with Women’s Chess Grandmaster Jennifer Shahade about what chess and poker teach you about life; how statistics can help you think about having kids; and the time Maria lost a chess match in four moves. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnyst…

1
The President Has No Clothes: Biden Should Drop Out 45:38

6M ago45:38

45:38

In this bonus episode, Nate and Maria discuss last night’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump. They argue that Biden should drop out of the race, and discuss what might happen if he does. Further Reading: “Joe Biden Should Drop Out” from Silver Bulletin “CNN Presidential Debate: President Joe Biden and former President Donald…

1
Nate’s Election Model, the Trouble with Insurance, and How People Get Risk Wrong 43:13

6M ago43:13

43:13

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about the market for risk. And they discuss some key mistakes people make when thinking about risk. Further Reading: “Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” by…

1
Snap Elections, Global Warming, and Maria’s Favorite Hot Sauce 42:11

6M ago42:11

42:11

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss the reasoning behind Macron’s decision to hold early elections in France, how heat waves could help communicate the reality of climate change, and what we can learn from the impending sriracha shortage. The theme that ties it all together: How to think about long-term risk. Further Reading: “The s…

1
Lifetime Terms, Lifetime Bans, and the Return of Roaring Kitty 43:33

7M ago43:33

43:33

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss whether Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor should retire, the perils of sports betting among professional athletes, and what the return of Roaring Kitty means for traditional market analysis. Further Reading: “Sonia Sotomayor Should Retire Now” from The Atlantic “Should Sonia Sotomayor Retire?”…

1
Mistakes and Unknowns: Election Polls, Poker Tournaments, and the NBA Finals 48:49

7M ago48:49

48:49

This week on Risky Business, Nate gives his analysis of what Trump’s guilty verdict may mean for the election, Maria shares the biggest mistakes she’s seen at the World Series of Poker so far, and Nate reveals an interesting ripple in the sports betting ecosystem ahead of the NBA Finals. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:…

1
WSOP Kickoff, Crypto ETFs, and Airfare Refunds 41:11

7M ago41:11

41:11

Nate and Maria are in Vegas for the first week of the World Series of Poker. On today’s show, they share their top tips for acing the World Series, explain the politics behind last week’s approval of a new kind of crypto ETF, and unpack new rules for airline delays. Further Reading: “SEC Unexpectedly Expedites ETH ETF w/ Eric Balchunas” from Galaxy…

1
A Backup for Biden 43:08

7M ago43:08

43:08

Nate and Maria start with something light: p(doom) and the possibility that AI will bring about the end of life as we know it. Then, Nate breaks down the news about the presidential debates and makes a shocking recommendation to the Democratic Party. And – most importantly – our hosts preview the upcoming World Series of Poker in Vegas. Further Rea…

1
Lessons from the Final Table 39:45

7M ago39:45

39:45

Welcome to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. Today, Maria has lessons from a poker tournament she recently played in Monte Carlo, where she made it to the final table. Then, Nate discusses what RFK Jr.’s impressive polling numbers could mean for Biden and Trump. And Nate and Maria discuss Caitlin Clark and what her story tells u…

1
Coming Soon... Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova 2:42

8M ago2:42

2:42

Launching on May 16, Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions. Maria has a PhD in psychology and is …

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