Najlepsze podcasty z kategorii: Week Ahead (2025)

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The Week Ahead – Tariffs Kick In; Europe Kicks Off With Fiscal Easing 24:37

30m ago24:37

24:37

Markets have seen sizable moves as the US administration ramped up tariffs and Germany announced a huge fiscal package. (02:30) With US tariffs hitting last week, we discuss what is actually in place, what is likely to come and the impact on the US, China and Europe. (15:15) Germany’s fiscal stimulus is having a major market impact and should meani…

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The Trouble with Tariffs 5:45

4d ago5:45

5:45

I was at a conference last week and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about tariffs. It’s a fair question. Many people who instinctively believe in free trade would still have a hard time in clearly explaining the trouble with tariffs. And since tariffs are likely to be a big issue thi…

1
Bridges to nowhere 27:39

6d ago27:39

27:39

Thousands of Nigerians who fled to Chad due to the Boko Haram insurgency have started returning to Maiduguri, Borno State. What challenges might these returnees face as they reintegrate into their communities? Nigeria is preparing to conduct its first national population and housing census since 2006, incorporating biometric and digital technology.…

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The Week Ahead – China To The Rescue? 24:25

7d ago24:25

24:25

It’s a big week for China with all eyes on the National People’s Congress (NPC), where fiscal measures could be announced. We outline our expectations and whether the NPC could potentially provide a lift in market sentiment. In the US, we preview the February employment report and its impact on Fed policy, and digest the latest announcements on tar…

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The Implications of Slowing Population Growth 8:11

11d ago8:11

8:11

In December, the Census Bureau announced that the U.S. population had grown by nearly 1% in the year ended July 1st, 2024, marking the strongest annual gain since 2001[1]. Given this, it seems strange to be already talking about slowing population growth. However, the reality is that the gap between births and deaths is continuing to shrink, with a…

1
Who pays the price? 29:18

13d ago29:18

29:18

Nigeria’s inflation rate fell to 24.48% in January 2025 from 34.8% in December after the government updated how it measures inflation, reducing the impact of food prices in the calculation and adjusting the weights for housing and transport. How will this new inflation calculation affect the cost of living? Lawmakers moved four tax bills forward de…

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The Week Ahead – Risk Sentiment Intact, For Now 17:17

14d ago17:17

17:17

Market sentiment seems to be holding in pretty well as this week comes to a close. Equity markets are generally holding up at healthy levels, credit spreads remain pretty tight, and commodity currencies, which are often seen as global growth sensitive and risk barometers, are holding up at higher levels. This week in the US, our focus will be on co…

1
The Growth Drag from Policy Uncertainty 12:14

17d ago12:14

12:14

In the four weeks since he took office, the president has issued an extraordinary number of executive orders, while promising dramatic change across the full reach of the federal government. While these policy moves have broad political, geopolitical and social implications, for investors, the most important concern tariffs, immigration, the federa…

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Gifts that keep on taking 22:10

20d ago22:10

22:10

Valentine’s Day has become a major spending event in the country, with gifts, dining, and entertainment driving consumer activity. Traditional gifts remain popular, but experiential gifts are also in demand. How did businesses that adapt to evolving preferences position to benefit from this growing market? President Bola Tinubu has requested the Na…

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The Week Ahead – Give Peace A Chance? 19:06

21d ago19:06

19:06

Early signs of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal are boosting market optimism, with EUR/USD trading up towards its highest level since late-January and European equities continuing to surge. We discuss what this might mean for the euro area outlook. This positivity is, however, still being partially offset by the ongoing threat of US tariffs an…

1
Europe: The Slow and Steady Train 11:35

25d ago11:35

11:35

For investors, Europe seems like a train in a station, perpetually gathering steam and loading up for a long-delayed journey, but clearly advertising only a modest pace when it gets under way. Such has been the case for the European economy and, even more so, for European equities for many years. This has, of course, been deeply frustrating for tho…

1
Fault lines 20:58

27d ago20:58

20:58

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have officially left ECOWAS on January 29, 2025. However, ECOWAS will maintain diplomatic ties, recognise their passports, and allow trade under existing agreements while keeping communication channels open. How might this exit affect regional stability and cooperation in West Africa? Nigeria’s oil regulator will deny …

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The Week Ahead – Not Tariffic 18:07

28d ago18:07

18:07

This past week began with the news that Mexico and Canada had secured a temporary reprieve from US tariffs. However, we see higher tariffs as highly likely. This week also brought us stronger-than-expected earnings data in Japan. Looking ahead, in the US our focus will be on any further tariff news, the January CPI and Fed-speak. In Europe, we’ll b…

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The Investment Implications of the Trade War 6:51

1M ago6:51

6:51

On Saturday, the White House announced the imposition of heavy tariffs on goods exported from Mexico, Canada and China and all three nations announced their intention to retaliate. These tariffs threaten to raise prices and slow economic activity across all four countries. While the end game of this trade war remains very uncertain, it has the pote…

1
The Week Ahead – Snaky Ways 19:50

1M ago19:50

19:50

It’s been another big week, with the news on DeepSeek rattling global equity markets, led by the tech sector. The Fed’s on-hold decision came and went as expected, however we have made an important change to our Fed forecasts. Coming up, the US employment report will be key to watch, alongside hints on whether tariffs will soon be implemented. Else…

1
Maelstrom 31:40

1M ago31:40

31:40

Boko Haram killed at least 20 fishermen in Borno State, and ISWAP fighters attacked a Nigerian military base in Malam-Fatori, killing 20 soldiers. The militants surprised the troops with gun trucks and gunfire, burning buildings and forcing people to flee. How can Nigeria better protect its people and military from these insurgent attacks? Rwandan-…

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White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing 10:10

1M ago10:10

10:10

This Wednesday, at 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve will release a statement on monetary policy. It will, as usual, be a brief and colorless document and will look paler still in comparison to the more than 60 executive orders, proclamations and memoranda that have emanated from the White House in the first week of the President’s new term. However, th…

1
Familiar struggles 25:02

1M ago25:02

25:02

Nigeria's BVN enrollments reached 64.83 million by January 2025, and the CBN introduced new platforms and accounts to simplify fund transfers and investments for Nigerians abroad. How will these initiatives improve financial inclusion for Nigerians in the diaspora? Environmentalists oppose restarting oil production in Ogoniland, demanding a $1 tril…

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The Week Ahead – One Week In 17:19

1M ago17:19

17:19

We are only a few days into President Trump’s new term, but already there has been a lot of action. Over 25 executive orders have been signed, and we discuss what these might mean for the macro economic outlook. In Europe, we look at the likely 25bp cut by the ECB, signs of short-term positivity in the region and the possible response to Trump’s po…

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The Big Picture on Debt, Deficits and Interest Rates 12:25

1M ago12:25

12:25

“Unsustainable!” To quote Inigo Montoya: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means” For decades, journalists, economists, politicians, and central bankers have said that the U.S. federal debt is on an “unsustainable” path. However, it has stayed on that path, climbing from a very manageable $3.3 trillion, or 31.5% o…

1
Lightheaded 35:54

2M ago35:54

35:54

During China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit, President Tinubu urged expanding the $2 billion currency swap, revisiting the $50 billion Africa aid package, and supporting Nigeria's UN Security Council bid. China pledged deeper cooperation and implementing FOCAC agreements, and the China Development Bank granted Nigeria a $254.76 million loan for…

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The Week Ahead – Inauguration Sensation 23:00

2M ago23:00

23:00

We’ve had a very busy start to the year and the excitement is likely to continue with the focus on Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday 20th January. In this episode, we outline what policy announcements to expect in the early part of Trump’s second term, and how Asian economies may respond. In Europe we will be digging into recent UK market volat…

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Interest Rates, Inflation and the Uncertainty Tax 12:22

2M ago12:22

12:22

In football, it’s always better, at the snap of the ball to disguise your intentions. Are you going to pass or run the ball? Is it a zone defense or man-to-man? In business or in military maneuvers the same rule applies – keep them guessing. However, in macro-economic management, it is better to make your plans clear. That way businesses can feel m…

1
Bold Statements 24:15

2M ago24:15

24:15

Nigeria's poor road infrastructure poses a significant economic burden, costing the country billions of naira annually in lost productivity and resources. SBM recently surveyed 245 commercial drivers across eight major hubs, and we saw widespread dissatisfaction with road conditions. We talk about the report. Landmark Africa, known for the Landmark…

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The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies 28:33

2M ago28:33

28:33

The week ahead promises to be another eventful one, with key CPI data in the US and the UK. We also have tier-1 data in China and a couple of central bank decisions in Asia. Recent comments from President-elect Trump particularly on tariffs, could provide some hints of what’s to come as we approach his inauguration. We will close with a special seg…

1
Stability and Extremes 10:20

2M ago10:20

10:20

Over the holiday season, we got to spend some time with our very charming granddaughter and, as a bonus, I am now fully re-acquainted with all the verses of “The Wheels on the Bus”. As we enter 2025, the American economy is rather like an old school bus – slow but steady, reliable and resilient. It generally moves forward. However, it is not invuln…

1
The Week Ahead – Happy New Year? 18:51

2M ago18:51

18:51

This year could be all about Trump, tariffs, and potentially turbulence. In this episode, we discuss our recently published annual outlooks and shine a spotlight on the key data and events over the coming week. In the US, our focus will be on the services ISM and payrolls reports. In Europe, CPI and final December PMI data will be released. Then it…

1
Putin’s 25 Years In Power 32:16

2M ago32:16

32:16

On December 31, 1999, Boris Yeltsin stepped down and handed Russia’s reins to Vladimir Putin, the former KGB officer he had named prime minister months earlier -- and who remains in power to this day. Analyst and author Mark Galeotti joins the host to discuss Putin’s 25-year rule.Autor: Steve Gutterman

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The year ahead - Caught in currents 34:46

3M ago34:46

34:46

For our final podcast of the year, we’ll review 2024 highlights and look ahead to 2025 using SBM’s The Year Ahead Report. Regarding the economy, we think that oil prices in 2025 will stay steady at $65-$75 per barrel. Nigeria’s oil production may fall short of its 2 million barrels/day target, hitting 1.8 million instead. We expect GDP to grow by 3…

1
The War In Ukraine In 2025 24:39

3M ago24:39

24:39

Sam Greene, professor at the King’s Russia Institute at King’s College London and director of democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis, joins host Steve Gutterman to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine, including the prospects for a cease-fire in 2025 and the role that public opinion in Russia, Ukraine, and the West could p…

1
Reading Between the Lines (On the Direction of Monetary Policy) 7:46

3M ago7:46

7:46

When testifying to the Senate Banking Committee back in 1987, the newly-appointed Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, provided some insight into his views on communication: “Since becoming a central banker”, he said, “I have learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.” His successors h…

1
K-legs 48:13

3M ago48:13

48:13

This week in Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria fined Moniepoint and OPay ₦1 billion ($578,000) each in Q2 2024 for compliance violations, adding to its regulatory clampdown. Are these measures necessary for financial stability, or could they hinder fintech innovation? Meanwhile, the country recorded a ₦5.81 trillion trade surplus in Q3 2024, wit…

1
The Week Ahead – Going Out with a Bang 22:30

3M ago22:30

22:30

Year end is approaching fast, but we still have key central bank meetings and data to look out for next week. In the US, our focus will be on the Fed policy decision, and the latest core inflation and activity readings. In Europe, the Bank of England meets, and key labour market and inflation data will be released. Then it’s the latest from Asia, w…

1
Initial Conditions 11:05

3M ago11:05

11:05

Many years ago, I worked for the Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis at the State of Michigan and, from time to time, Saul Hymans and his colleagues from the University of Michigan would visit the state government in Lansing to discuss the latest output from their macro economic models of the U.S. and Michigan economies. As they started into their p…

1
'The Idea Seemed Insane': Behind Putin's Invasion Of Ukraine 36:43

3M ago36:43

36:43

Lucian Kim, author of the new book Putin's Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine, joins the host to discuss Putin's growing resentment, Russia's imperialist legacy, the Kremlin's turn toward autocracy, and other factors behind the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.Autor: Steve Gutterman

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Ghana Decides: The road to Jubilee House 24:07

3M ago24:07

24:07

This week, it's all about Ghana. The country is preparing for Sunday's elections and is set to go to the polls to elect a new president. The political landscape is heating up as candidates gear up for a highly competitive race. Then, Ghana's Jubilee oil field production dropped to 89,000 barrels per day due to issues with the J69-P well and downtim…

1
The Week Ahead – Central Banks Take Center Stage 24:16

3M ago24:16

24:16

Starting next week we have monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia. These along with a few key data releases set the tone for the week after which is promising to be a blockbuster week, when we have the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, plus a few central banks in Asia al…

1
Irish Lessons 8:44

3M ago8:44

8:44

This week will be full of market-moving economic data. We expect purchasing manager surveys and light-vehicle sales to indicate steady demand in November, as investors await Friday’s jobs report. Recent data on unemployment claims point to continued momentum and payroll growth should rebound from October’s meagre reading which was suppressed by bot…

1
Trigger-nometry 42:22

3M ago42:22

42:22

After being idle for a couple of decades, the 59-year-old Port Harcourt Refinery suddenly resumed operations. With an initial production capacity of 60,000 barrels per day, this marks a major step in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel. How quickly will this impact fuel supply and stabilize the domestic market? The National Bureau of Sta…

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The Week Ahead - Give Thanks For 23:46

3M ago23:46

23:46

Trump’s tariff announcements have started to move markets. We discuss how to interpret the latest US political developments and provide a preview of this week’s all important labour market data. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India is set to meet and may offer some dovish guidance. While in Europe, we preview the PMIs and Swiss inflation data. Chapte…

1
Escalation And Endgame 18:08

3M ago18:08

18:08

U.S. permission for Ukrainian strikes deeper in Russian territory. A new Russian nuclear doctrine and a ballistic missile attack. Olga Oliker of the Crisis Group joins the host to discuss what the rush of recent developments could mean for the war in Ukraine.Autor: Steve Gutterman

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Wave of change 36:54

3M ago36:54

36:54

On November 21, Simon Ekpa, a dual citizen of Nigeria and Finland and self-proclaimed IPOB leader, was arrested in Finland on terrorism-related charges. Accused of using social media to incite violence in Nigeria, his arrest highlights the impact of online rhetoric. How will this affect separatist activities in southeastern Nigeria? Meanwhile, Nige…

1
The Week Ahead - Back Towards Normal? 14:01

3M ago14:01

14:01

Inflation and policy rates are returning towards normal in many countries. This week our focus turns back towards normal market drivers. We discuss core inflation in the US and the latest set of Fed meeting minutes. Across Europe, we have a number of central bank speakers, key inflation and growth readings to watch out for, as well as Tokyo inflati…

1
Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook 11:17

4M ago11:17

11:17

I’ve been running my own econometric model of the U.S. economy for almost 30 years now. The basic structure is simple. You start by forecasting the components of demand, that is to say, consumption, investment, trade and government spending. This gives you an initial projection of real GDP growth. You then feed this into labor market equations, alo…

1
Whiplash 32:15

4M ago32:15

32:15

We start with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Nigeria, the first by an Indian PM in 17 years. With over $27 billion in Indian investments in Nigeria, what is the potential to expand trade and cooperation? Will this historic visit deepen Nigeria-India ties? Next, Nigeria’s economic woes are mounting. Manufacturers report ₦1.2…

1
The Week Ahead - Global Aftershocks 21:49

4M ago21:49

21:49

In last week’s podcast we focused on the US and China following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections. This week we continue to discuss the implications of Trump 2.0 on other parts of the globe. Also on deck next week are US housing starts data, CPI prints in the UK and Japan, as well as Bank Indonesia likely again pausing amid extern…

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