225 - Will China's demand lift oil prices? | No, the petrodollar is not going away

Energy Week

China’s mixed economic data fuels concerns about recovery

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/05/01/business/china-economic-recovery-concerns/#

- Is this something that China can deal with domestically? Or is it the fault of the global economy which isn't ordering as much stuff from China?

- China's consumer demand is doing ok, but the industrial side of China is patchy.

- Is this just pent up consumer demand and the consumer economy will drop off to match the poor industrial recovery?

- "The manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.2 from 51.9 in March — the first time since December it was below the 50 mark, which signals a contraction. Sub-indexes for new orders, new export orders and manufacturing employment were all below 50."

- Will the consumer numbers decline once the post-Covid bump is over? If so...oil prices are heading lower.

GasBuddy: Decline in retail gasoline prices gaining momentum

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2023/05/01/gasoline-dehaan-aaa-gasbuddy-oil/5411682948788/

- gasoline prices are going down and will go down even more.

- result of oil prices declining and wholesale gasoline prices declining and retailers are passing on the savings to consumers.

- diesel prices also declining. Is this due to slowing economy, or is it just coming back down after being so high due to Ukraine/Russia issues? Seems like the issue is the economy.

First shipment of Russian oil to Pakistan brokered by China scheduled for May

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/first-shipment-of-russian-oil-to-pakistan-brokered-by-china-scheduled-for-may/articleshow/99879550.cms?from=mdr

- "The USA may also have given tacit support to this deal as crisis-hit Pakistan remains a key arms supplier to Kiev, ET has further learnt."

- Sanctions, etc. give US a way to control who gets what oil based on foreign policy goals.

How trading oil in another currency besides the dollar might play out

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/comment/2023/05/01/how-trading-oil-in-another-currency-besides-the-dollar-might-play-out/

- Saudi Arabia's currency is pegged to the dollar and they can't de-peg it because there would be huge inflation. Can't sell too much oil in currency in non-dollars because yuan, etc. can be devalued.

- "Any diminution of the dollar’s global role in favour of the yuan or another currency will be gradual, and will lead, not follow, the oil market."

- Saudi Arabia may be willing to accept yuan for oil, but they will likely insist on a set yuan to dollar rate.

Biden administration could delay electric vehicles biofuel program decision

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-administration-could-delay-electric-vehicles-biofuel-program-decision-2023-05-01/

- If EV manufactures use renewable "fuels" (energy?) they might get awarded RINs they can sell to gasoline refineries that can't use enough Ethanol?

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