Evan Silva’s Matchups: Christmas Slate

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Wednesday Christmas Day Doubleheader

1:00 PM ET Game

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh

Team Totals: Chiefs 23, Steelers 20

On their third game in 11 days, the Chiefs visit Pittsburgh with Patrick Mahomes having netted fantasy’s QB8 score over his last five starts while getting back field-stretching WR Marquise Brown (shoulder) against a Steelers defense likely missing top CB Joey Porter Jr. (calf/knee). Mahomes’ protection remains a big concern; Kansas City has yielded the NFL’s eighth-highest pressure rate (23%), while Pittsburgh has generated the NFL’s second-most QB knockdowns (60). I’m valuing Mahomes in low-end QB1 territory. … Kareem Hunt has stayed (slightly) ahead of Isiah Pacheco in Kansas City’s backfield order by churning out consistent gains; over the past two weeks, Hunt has parlayed 27 touches into 128 yards and a touchdown versus Pacheco’s 24/36/0 result. The Steelers present a below-average fantasy running back matchup, rendering both Hunt and Pacheco TD-dependent flex options.

Operating as Mahomes’ No. 1 wideout lately, Xavier Worthy has played 80% or more of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in three straight games and handled 16 touches over the last two. Asked about Worthy this week, OC Matt Nagy likened his progress to Rashee Rice’s as a rookie. In fantasy, Worthy remains a boom-bust WR3/flex pick. … Marquise Brown ranked fifth among Chiefs WRs in snaps in his first game back but drew eight targets, second most on the team. Among Kansas City wideouts, I’m valuing Worthy in his own top tier while approaching Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Watson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster as low-ceiling rotational players. … Pittsburgh has coughed up the league’s seventh-most catches to tight ends (83), keeping Travis Kelce relevant and elevating Noah Gray’s sleeper appeal.

Russell Wilson has finished below 20 fantasy points in six of eight starts since taking over for Justin Fields, while Kansas City has yielded the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and 10th-lowest passer rating (87.9). Wilson is a poor two-QB-league play. … Jaylen Warren passed Najee Harris as Pittsburgh’s main back over the Steelers’ last two games; Warren out-snapped Harris 63 to 31 and out-touched him 22 to 16 during that span. Yet no NFL team has permitted fewer fantasy points to running backs than the Chiefs this season.

Steelers No. 1 WR George Pickens (hamstring) appears ticketed to return from his three-game absence. In Weeks 7-13 — the period in which Wilson started for the Steelers and Pickens was healthy — Pickens was fantasy’s overall WR11 in per-game PPR scoring. … With Pickens due back, Calvin Austin, Van Jefferson, and Mike Williams check in as dart-throw plays on Wednesday-only two-game DFS tournament slates. … Pat Freiermuth is a matchup-driven TE1 streamer facing a Chiefs defense yielding the NFL’s third-most catches (94) and a league-high 1,090 receiving yards to opposing tight ends.

Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Chiefs 20

4:30 PM ET Game

Baltimore @ Houston

Team Totals: Ravens 26, Texans 20.5

Lamar Jackson visits Houston’s retractable NRG Stadium dome to face a Texans defense missing FS Jimmie Ward (foot) and SS Jalen Pitre (shoulder) while permitting the league’s ninth-most fantasy quarterback points. Jackson leads the NFL in completions of 40+ yards (13); Houston has conceded the league’s third-most 40+ yard completions (10). … Over his last four games, Derrick Henry is averaging 21.5 touches for 126.8 yards without a single score, suggesting Henry is due for positive-touchdown regression here. Ravens No. 2 RB Justice Hill (concussion) seems unlikely to be active against the Texans.

Zay Flowers profiles as a high-floor, questionable-ceiling WR2 play at Houston having collected six-plus targets in eight straight games yet nursing a shoulder injury. … Rashod Bateman has exceeded 80 yards in one of 15 appearances, while the Texans have yielded the NFL’s 10th-most yards to wide receivers (2,318). … Nelson Agholor’s (concussion) Week 17 availability is to be determined. Tylan Wallace was Baltimore’s next man up in Agholor’s Week 16 absence, yet Wallace ran only six pass routes and wasn’t even targeted against Pittsburgh. … Mark Andrews is fantasy’s overall TE6 since Week 6, while Week 17 foe Houston is missing both starting safeties. … Isaiah Likely is a TD-dependent streamer.

C.J. Stroud enters Week 17 having scored 18 fantasy points or fewer in nine straight starts now at risk of missing C Juice Scruggs (foot) and RG Shaq Mason (knee). Stroud’s box-score outlook is dismal after he lost best friend Tank Dell to a debilitating Week 16 knee injury. … As usual, Joe Mixon is a volume-driven RB2 play with RB1 upside facing a Ravens defense surrendering the league’s seventh-fewest fantasy running back points. Houston’s OL injuries further complicate Mixon’s projection. He still stands to flirt with 20 touches.

Nico Collins is Saturday’s premier box-score play facing a Ravens defense permitting the NFL’s fifth-most catches (199), fourth-most receiving yards (2,579), and sixth-most receiving TDs (17). … The Texans claimed Diontae Johnson off waivers from the Ravens after losing Tank Dell (ACL/dislocated kneecap), but Johnson can’t be expected to make an immediate impact. … Robert Woods has cleared 20 yards in just one of 13 games. … John Metchie has drawn four targets or fewer in 10 of 11 appearances. Metchie is allegedly now battling a shoulder injury. … Dalton Schultz is TE1 streamable against the Ravens, who’ve given up the NFL’s seventh-most catches (83) and seventh-most receiving yards (880) to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 17