The Labor Market Is Cooling | Talmon Smith & Jack Farley (Driving Back from Camp Kotok)

Forward Guidance

This interview was recorded on a drive down from Leen’s Lodge in rural Maine, as Talmon and Jack returned from “Camp Kotok,” the renowned retreat for prominent economists, wealth managers, traders, heads of research, and financial journalists. Talmon and Jack talk about the cooling labor market, modern monetary theory (MMT), private credit, and more.

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About Camp Kotok https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok

Leen’s Lodge: https://leenslodge.com/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:33) The Soft Landing Is In View

(08:28) Companies Actually Do Pay Attention To Interest Rates When Hiring, Believe It Or Not

(17:26) Jack & Tal Rant About The Virtues Of A Flexible Centralized Currency

(18:53) Permissionless Ad

(19:51) Interview Continues

(26:42) The Sahm Rule Was Created To Inspire Action In Order to Prove Itself Wrong

(37:00) Outside of Banking Crisis of 2023, The Fed's "Pain" Has Yet To Show Itself

(42:37) The Treasury Market: How Much Does Supply Affect Yields?

(49:48) Modern Monetary Theory: Who Really Prints The Money?

(01:27:10) Jack's Personal Thoughts On Private Credit

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.