"Balance Sheet Deterioration" - Midwest Ag Economy in Full Blown Recession

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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0:00 Ag Recession
3:55 Midwest Heat
6:58 Brazil Acreage
8:20 Argentina Acreage
9:49 Corn Sold to Mexico
Here's the latest scoop on the grain markets and farmer decisions:
🌾 Farmer Adjustments:
Price Pressures: With grain prices under pressure due to projected bumper crops, farmers are facing tough choices. Many are scaling back on fungicide and fertilizer use and delaying investments that could boost productivity and earnings.
Financial Impact: In Illinois, farmers could lose up to $118 per acre for corn and $81 per acre for soybeans this year, as highlighted by a recent WJS article HERE.
🌞 Weather Impact:
Hot and Dry Conditions: A heatwave and minimal rainfall across the Corn Belt have pushed up grain prices slightly. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures rose on Tuesday due to the unfavorable weather forecast. However, prices are still at their lowest levels in 14 years compared to other commodities, weighed down by abundant global and domestic supplies.
🌍 Global Acreage and Production:
Brazil: Soybean acres in Brazil are expected to grow at their slowest rate in over a decade. Despite this, COFCO forecasts a record 168 million metric tons (mmt) soybean crop for the 2024/2025 season, up 14% from the previous year. Soybean acreage is being reduced due to prices near four-year lows.
Argentina: Significant increases in soybean acres are expected as Argentine farmers shift from corn to soybeans due to leafhopper damage. The Rosario grains exchange predicts a 4.9 million-acre reduction in corn planting, with a substantial portion shifting to soybeans. There’s also a possibility that a harsh winter may have reduced the leafhopper population, potentially moderating the expected decline in corn planting.
🌽 USDA Flash Sale:
Corn Sale: On Tuesday, US exporters sold 127,760 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Despite this, total new crop corn export commitments are still among the lowest in the past decade.
Stay informed and adapt to the changing market conditions! 🌽📈🌍