USDA Finally Admits It - Corn Demand is STRONG

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 Corn Futures Rally on USDA Report 📊
Corn futures rallied on Tuesday, driven by a friendly USDA report 📈. The nearby March 2025 corn contract gained more than 7 cents per bushel, closing at $4.49, its best close since early October 🌽. The USDA increased its projection for US corn exports by a whopping 150 million bushels, citing a strong sales pace. In addition, the USDA raised its forecast for corn demand via ethanol by 50 million bushels. As a result, the USDA reduced the 24/25 US carryout projection by 200 million bushels, signaling a tighter corn balance sheet 📉.
🌾 USDA's Bearish Soybean Projection Continues 📉
The USDA continues to project a burdensome soybean situation for the current marketing year 🌱. The government left its US soybean balance sheet unchanged, with Brazil's crop estimate remaining at 169 million metric tons (mmt) and Argentina's production estimate slightly increased to 52 mmt 🌍. The global supply and demand situation for soybeans is expected to be the 2nd most bearish on record, only behind the 2018/2019 marketing year. The stocks/use ratio is also expected to remain high, further indicating pressure on the soybean market 📉.
🇨🇳 China Prepares Stimulus Measures Amid US Tariffs 🏦
China is ready to implement stimulus measures to counter the effects of US trade tariffs 💰. In response, China will adopt a more relaxed monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures, marking a shift from its cautious approach of the past 14 years 📊. This policy change reflects China's willingness to take on higher debt levels and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio as it aims to stimulate growth 🏗️. These measures will prioritize consumption and high-tech manufacturing while managing risks. The extent of China’s policy will depend on the timing and scale of new US tariffs 🇺🇸.
💼 Trump's Tariffs May Not Be as Severe as Expected 📉
President-elect Donald Trump's tariffs may not have the far-reaching impact many have anticipated 💼. Leaders from Guggenheim Partners and Franklin Templeton suggest that Trump’s tariffs could be more of a negotiating tactic rather than universal and severe actions 🔄. Experts argue that these targeted tariffs may not trigger a full-scale trade war, and the negative impacts on the global economy are expected to be delayed due to the slow pace of policy implementation in Washington, D.C. 📅.
📊 US Inflation Likely Paused in November 📉
The downward trend in US inflation appears to have paused in November 📊. The CPI report is expected to show an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, up 0.1% from October 📈. On a monthly basis, inflation is anticipated to have risen 0.3%. Traders are still predicting a 77% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by a quarter percentage point at next week’s meeting 🏦. However, some economists are concerned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could keep inflation elevated into 2025, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates as expected 📊.
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