When Biden Lost It & Nate Silver's Bet

Mixed Signals from Semafor Media

Where were you when Joe Biden lost the debate to Trump? Max was in the CNN Spin Room, Nayeema watched with a cabal of crypto bros and Ben was at home scrolling X. They discuss the moment the debate was decided (9:22 or 9:23 EST) — and who gets to call it. Then, Ben and Nayeema turn to an interview with political statistician and professional gambler Nate Silver to talk election prediction, Biden’s age, and why Nate’s new Silver Bulletin model gives Trump a 66% chance of winning the election in November.

Finally, Nayeema makes us eat our spinach with a quick tour of global elections whose participants can’t possibly produce 90 minutes of television as bad as we just watched.

Drop us a line if you’ve got a tip: [e-mail]

Find us on X: @semaforben, @nayeema @maxwelltani or on Instagram @nayeemaraza

Sign up for Semafor Media’s Sunday newsletter: https://www.semafor.com/newsletters/media

Sign up for Nate Silver’s newsletter, Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/subscribe

Mixed Signals from Semafor Media is presented by Think with Google