Early Earnings Takeaways, Vibes Vigilance, Show Me the Money FlowsSeason

RBC's Markets in Motion

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The War and Treaty Are Getting Carried Away 46:55

1 day temu46:55

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The War and Treaty’s Michael and Tanya Trotter grew up in Cleveland, Ohio, and Washington, DC, respectively, but both have family roots in the South. They also grew up in the musical traditions of their churches – Tanya in the Black Baptist Church and Michael in the Seventh Day Adventist Church – where they learned the power of song to move people. After becoming a father at a very young age, Michael eventually joined the armed forces and served in Iraq and Germany, where he took up songwriting as a way of dealing with his experiences there. Meanwhile Tanya embarked on a singing and acting career after a breakthrough appearance in Sister Act 2 alongside Whoopi Goldberg and Lauryn Hill. Now, after a long and sometimes traumatic journey, Michael and Tanya are married, touring, winning all sorts of awards, and set to release their fifth album together, and their fourth as The War and Treaty. Sid talks to Michael and Tanya about the new record, Plus One , as well as their collaboration with Miranda Lambert, what it was like to record at FAME studios in Muscle Shoals, and how they’re blending country, soul, gospel, and R&B. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices…

rok temu 7:19

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The big things you need to know: First, the initial batch of 4Q24 earnings call commentary, which is mostly from Financials, highlights the optimism and uncertainty that are both embedded in the current outlook for stocks. Second, investor sentiment on the AAII survey continued to slip last week despite stabilization in the S&P 500 itself. Third, we continue to see some signs of mild rotation affecting US equity funds flows where we continue to see a loss of momentum. At the same time, we are seeing improvement in flows to bond funds, global equity funds, and several categories of non-US equity funds.

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Early Earnings Takeaways, Vibes Vigilance, Show Me the Money FlowsSeason

RBC's Markets in Motion

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published rok temu

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Wszystkie odcinki

1
Drawdowns, Bear Case Stress Test, Vibes, Small Caps 9:39

2 dni temu9:39

9:39

The big things you need to know: First, we review our basic framework for thinking about drawdowns in US equities, a topic that’s been coming up in client meetings over the past few weeks, as investor uncertainty regarding the economy has increased. Second, we have refreshed the math behind our YE 2025 bear case of 5,775, specifically our valuation/EPS stress test. Third, we run through our latest updates on the vibes breakdown in the US, where investor sentiment has plunged to crisis lows on one key metric. Fourth, some of our work suggests opportunity is opening up in Small Caps, though we think it’s too early to go overweight.…

1
Surveilling the Vibes 7:43

9 dni temu7:43

7:43

The big things you need to know: First, we found more evidence of weakening investor and consumer vibes in last week’s data updates, while getting a mostly positive data point on corporate vibes, and a flattening in political vibes. Second, the rotation of funds flows from US equities to bonds and European equities strengthened last week.…

1
Treading Water 7:09

15 dni temu7:09

7:09

The big things you need to know: First, there was very little change last week in the stats we monitor to track reporting season, aside from the continued drift lower in the bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to a little below $271. Second, uncertainty, policy, tariffs, and FX remained in focus in last week’s earnings calls. Third, we continued to find evidence of weakening vibes in the latest updates from the AAII investor survey, the NFIB Small Business sentiment survey update, and EPFR funds flows.…

1
Uncertainty Dents Optimism 8:25

23 dni temu8:25

8:25

The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, the earnings backdrop has softened a bit on the stats for the broader US equity market, and has also justified the rotation in performance leadership that has been seen. Second, company commentary in last week’s earnings calls highlighted the uncertain optimism that is driving US equity market performance at the moment. Third, weakness in investor sentiment and a miss on consumer sentiment stand out in our high frequency updates last week. We continue to closely monitor the vibes whose anticipated strength has been an important part of the bullish thesis on the US equity market for 2025.…

1
Solid Earnings Stats To Start 4:56

5 weeks temu4:56

4:56

The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, 4Q24 earnings season looks solid on the stats so far. Second, bulls bounced back in the weekly AAII survey last week, as US equity flows stabilized.

1
Early Earnings Takeaways, Vibes Vigilance, Show Me the Money FlowsSeason 7:19

6 weeks temu7:19

7:19

1
Jobs Jumble, Our Questions for Companies in 4Q24 Reporting Season 7:38

7 weeks temu7:38

7:38

The big things you need to know: First, we review our thoughts on last Friday's jobs report and reaction in the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Second, with 4Q24 reporting season getting underway, we review what we’re listening for in S&P 500 company earnings calls. Third, we run through updates on other high frequency indicators, including a new chart comparing market cap and net income concentration for the biggest names in the S&P 500.…

1
Sector Update - Survey Results, Flows, US Changes 6:21

8 weeks temu6:21

6:21

The big things you need to know: Today in the podcast, an update on our S&P 500 sector outlook for 2025, and the results of the quarterly RBC analyst survey that we just updated in late December. Three big things you need to know: First, globally – taking into account the views of our analysts in all of our coverage regions -- our analysts tilt constructive on performance, valuations and demand, but have more mixed/neutral views on the US and non-US political backdrops. Second, our work on global equity funds flows highlights how US, growth-oriented sector, and most cyclical sector flows faded in the final weeks of 2024, while Western Europe and defensive sector flows improved marginally. Third, within the US we have upgraded Utilities to overweight and, to offset the move, have downgraded Energy to market weight. The views of our US analyst teams as captured by the survey results really drove these changes.…

1
EPS Revisions Fade, Sentiment Wanes, P/Es Contract, & Flows Fade as 2025 Begins 4:51

8 weeks temu4:51

4:51

The big things you need to know: First, modest downward revisions have returned to bottom-up consensus S&P 500 EPS forecasts. Second, frothy US equity market sentiment has been a problem for the US equity market, but our work suggests that many investors have become cognizant of this problem and that it is starting to self-correct. Third, outside of the biggest market cap names in the S&P 500, a number of our valuation indicators have started to contract. Fourth, US equity funds flows deteriorated as 2024 came to an end.…

1
Navigating markets in 2025: Whipsaws and fatter-tails call for tactical moves 25:14

10 weeks temu25:14

25:14

The format of this special edition of RBC’s Markets in Motion is a little bit different from what we usually do, and runs a little bit longer than usual. In this episode, Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, is joined by two of her macro partners at RBC Capital Markets, Head of US Rates Strategy, Blake Gwinn, and Equity Derivative Strategist Amy Wu Silverman. With 2024 winding down, all of their outlook reports out, and too many December investor meetings behind them to even count, these three thought leaders at RBC Capital Markets came together to discuss their thoughts on the equity market, the bond market, and volatility in the year ahead. The conversation took place on December 19th, 2024. We hope you enjoy the discussion and wish all of our regular listeners a very happy New Year.…

1
Positioning Takes a Tiny Hit, Mixed Shifts in Key Consensus Macro Assumptions 6:05

12 weeks temu6:05

6:05

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, positioning in US equity futures per the weekly CFTC data has taken a tiny hit. Second, consensus US GDP forecasts have moved up, along with consensus Fed Funds and 10-year yield forecasts. Third, other things that jump out on our high frequency indicators include the continued decline in bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 operating margin forecasts, geographical equity fund flow dynamics, and recent sharp inflows into momentum equity funds.…

1
Early Thoughts on the 2025 S&P 500 Sector Outlook 5:31

13 weeks temu5:31

5:31

Today in the podcast: Our thoughts on the outlook for the S&P 500 sectors in 2025, with a focus on those where we've made changes to our view. The big things you need to know: First, we have upgraded Communication Services from market weight to overweight. Second, we are downgrading Health Care to market weight from overweight. Third, we are downgrading Materials from overweight to market weight.…

1
Some of the Biggest Things We're Thinking About Heading Into 2025 11:00

14 weeks temu11:00

11:00

Today in the podcast: Highlights from our 2025 US Equity Market outlook, in which we reviewed the top 10 things we’re thinking about as the new year comes into view. We won’t go through all ten, but are going to run through some of the more important highlights regarding our broader market call. The big things you need to know: First, our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target is 6,600 – that’s our base case; we also run through our bear case of 5,775. Second, sentiment is modestly constructive on a 12 month view but also makes the case for a near-term pullback. Third, we don’t see much room for further P/E expansion but our valuation work still helps us see how stocks can move higher next year. Fourth, US equities may soon lose their appeal relative to bonds. Fifth, the US economy is at an important crossroad from a stock market perspective. And sixth, the political backdrop presents both tailwinds and possible headwinds for stocks.…

1
A Pullback May Have Started, Tariffs in Focus, Watching Financials Valuations 6:12

15 weeks temu6:12

6:12

Three big things you need to know: First, over the past week we’ve become increasingly convinced that a 5-10% pullback in the S&P 500 may have already started. Second, post-election company commentary has been heavily weighted to tariffs, a part of the Trump agenda that has concerned many equity investors. Third, other things that jump out from our high frequency indicators include Financials valuations that remain slightly attractive vs. the broader market.…

1
Earnings Wind Down, Stretched Positioning, Valuations With Less Room to Run 5:56

16 weeks temu5:56

5:56

Three big things you need to know: First, earnings season is winding down with a disappointing feel to us on the stats, though it’s admittedly not driving price action right now. Second, in our transcript reading, a mixed macro and consumer remained in focus, as companies began to highlight key policy issues they are watching post election. Third, positioning in US equity futures, for both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, looks stretched. Valuations have some room to run, but not a ton.…

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Early Earnings Takeaways, Vibes Vigilance, Show Me the Money FlowsSeason