ARINS Making Sense of a United Ireland, Should it Happen, How Might it Happen?

The Royal Irish Academy

In this month’s episode, host Rory Montgomery and Brendan O’Leary, Lauder Professor of Political Science, at the University of Pennsylvania, discuss Brendan’s latest book Making Sense of a United Ireland, Should it Happen, How Might it Happen? (https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/448578/making-sense-of-a-united-ireland-by-oleary-brendan/9781844886050) published today. O’Leary makes sense of it all from government ministries to ideological mindsets. The discussion explores demographic, electoral, and political changes, slowly and steadily shaping Northern Ireland. Should these slow, steady changes accelerate referenda on the future of Northern Ireland? O’Leary counsels against premature calls for referenda arguing that it would be inappropriate to hold a referendum in Northern Ireland where there is not sufficient evidence that a majority in Northern Ireland would be likely to vote for a united Ireland. Referenda should not be called until such point that it is clear that there has been a shift in opinion. O'Leary calls for timely preparation and detailed deliberation by the Irish government in the event of successful referendums north and south. He advocates for a series of processes including a standing constitutional all party forum and for systematic evaluation of difficult questions by way of deliberative forums on small dimensions of the momentous questions of Irish reunification. To avoid being unprepared in advance of a British government decision to initiate a referendum at any time O'Leary champions the case for the Irish government to create a ministry for unification. A ministry would support efforts seeking to shape arrangements and create models and mechanisms to better determine how a united Ireland might successfully operate.