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Unearthed: Digging deep into China’s new economic stimulus package ft. Professor Hao Zhou
Manage episode 452216773 series 3567867
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In this episode of Unearthed, co-hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade, Senior Market Strategists for the World Gold Council, are joined by Professor Hao Zhou from Tsinghua University to dive into the shifting dynamics of China’s economy and its impact on the global gold market. Together, they discuss China’s incredible economic transformation since 1978, the causes behind the recent slowdown in economic growth described by Professor Zhou as the three interconnected problems of: declining real estate, local government debt, and suppressed private industry. The trio also review how China’s new stimulus package could get the country back on the growth trajectory, and to conclude, Professor Zhou gives his two cents on what’s in store for the gold market in China.
[1:32] Professor Zhou discusses the Chinese economy from 1949 until 1978 and the characteristics of the market during those years.
[7:58] Professor Zhou discusses the declining real estate market and what that means for GDP.
[14:47] Joe asks about the historical regional wealth distribution in China.
[22:18] John asks whether the stimulus packages from the Chinese government will work and how long it might take for them to work.
[29:02] Joe asks Professor Zhou for his views on how investment in gold is playing out in the broader Chinese economy.
Additional Resources
2023 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey
Notable Quotes
"China is the world's largest economy, it's the country with the biggest gold demand, and is the largest gold mining country around. So it's no surprise that what is happening with the Chinese economy is vital to the gold market." –John Reade
"Since 1978 until now, the real growth, per capita GDP, taking out inflation, the real growth, is about eight to nine times. So the personal wealth, personal well-being increased more than eight, close to nine times over the last 40 years." –Professor Hao Zhou
“The most pressing and dangerous issue is a declining real estate...It's a tremendously important part of the economy and if it's declining 30%, you can imagine how important it affects other industries, the consumer sentiment, the government fiscal revenue, they are all connected.” –Professor Hao Zhou
“I'm going to argue looking back on the history of Chinese reform, the best reform measure always comes after the worst period of economic growth.” –Professor Hao Zhou
“[Regional autonomy in tax collection is] a radical shift in terms of how policy's been managed to date… I mean most if not all has been centralized by central government. This is a pretty substantial step that the central government is affording these regional governments.” –Joe Cavantoni
"It’s clear that the Chinese government has recognized that they need to act now, and act enthusiastically, in order to bring the Chinese economy back onto the rapid growth path." –John Reade
About World Gold Council
We are a membership organization that champions the role gold plays as a strategic asset, shaping the future of a responsible and accessible gold supply chain. Our team of experts builds understanding of the use case and possibilities of gold through trusted research, analysis, commentary, and insights. We drive industry progress, shaping policy and setting the standards for a perpetual and sustainable gold market.
You can follow the World Gold Council on Twitter at @goldcouncil and LinkedIn.
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